Australia has one job to do in its final T20 World Cup Super 12 match against Afghanistan — win and win big.
The horror 89-run loss to New Zealand in Australia’s first match of the tournament put the side behind the eight-ball from the outset and the lack of a huge win is coming back to bite the defending champions.
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As it stands Australia is third in the group behind New Zealand and England with only net run rate separating the teams. Only the top two from each group will go through to the semi-finals.
New Zealand (+2.233) has by far the best net run rate, followed by England (+0.55) and Australia (-0.304).
There is a very real possibility that despite being on the same points as England and New Zealand, Australia will be the unlucky team to miss out on the knockout matches.
New Zealand play Ireland at 3pm on Friday, followed by Australia-Afghanistan at 7pm at Adelaide Oval. England play Sri Lanka on Saturday at 7pm at the SCG (all times in AEDT).
The three leading teams will be hot favorites and playing into Australia’s hands is that Afghanistan are the only team yet to claim a win in the group.
The Courier Mail’s Robert Craddock suggested Australia would need a win by around 50 or 60 over Afghanistan and hope Sri Lanka push England all the way in order to book a spot in the semi-finals.
Australia missed a golden opportunity to eliminate the run rate deficit on Monday after allowing Ireland to escape from 5/25 to 137 all out.
England then claimed a 20-run win over New Zealand on Tuesday, which made Australia’s path to the next round all the more difficult.
There are still paths for Sri Lanka and Ireland to make the semi-finals as well. Sri Lanka will be hoping Australia or New Zealand lose, before claiming a win over England, while Ireland would need a thumping win over New Zealand and the other results to go their way.
Injuries have also struck both Australia and Afghanistan heading into the all-important match as BBL superstar Rashid Khan suffered a twisted knee in his side’s loss to Sri Lanka on Tuesday, while Australia will be sweating on the fitness of Aaron Finch and Tim David, both who suffered hamstring injuries.
Former Australian vice-captain Brad Haddin told Triple M the likes of Cameron Green and Steve Smith could save the country from the tricky predicament.
“This is going to be a real interesting selection because Afghanistan will be predominantly spin bowlers,” Haddin said.
“You’ve got Rashid Khan and Mujeeb (Ur Rahman) who are their big X-factor players and Steve Smith does play spin better than anyone in the world, so do you go him in the middle order and move Steinis up to the top because Marcus Stoinis at the moment he’s been dynamo. He’s playing a really aggressive game, he’s comfortable in his role in the middle so do you want to move him up the top?
“On the flip side you’ve got Cameron Green and we’ve seen Australia’s appetite to have him at the top of the order leading into this tournament.
“The obvious replacement to me is Green goes up, that gives you another bowling option. You’ve got three quicks, three medium pace all-rounders, so you’ve got options with the ball. So I’d imagine Green’s the frontrunner.”
But despite all the different scenarios, Australia is in a situation it never wanted to be in — hoping results go their way, regardless of how big a win they may claim against Afghanistan.
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