The Detroit Tigers fired general manager Al Avila last week, ending a seven-year tenure that produced a season of wins and zero playoff appearances. To be fair, Avila oversaw the reconstruction for most of his reign. He probably wanted to imitate the Cubs and Astros, two clubs that suffered up front as a vehicle for lifting trophies later on, but has been unable to figure out the exact recipe that lifted these franchises from the bottom up. did.
He added Jon Lester or Justin Verlander of his own to try to revitalize the Tigers’ competitive cycle last offseason, with a long-term advantage in favor of free agent lefty Eduardo Rodriguez and shortstop Javier Baez. made a deal. These moves failed to achieve the desired effect in year one. Instead, the Tigers are set to extend the playoff drought to his eighth, with his under-40% win of his fifth game in six tries. To make matters worse, recognized fundamentals and former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize had disappointing seasons. Torkelson for his play, Mize for injury.
The Tigers’ incoming general manager will do everything in his power to right Avila’s wrongs and get the franchise back on track. They also have to deal with seasoned managers who have more strokes than their colleagues. An owner trying to escape the shadow of his late father (and his wallet). and a fan base exhausted after years of rudderless rebuilding. Otherwise, it’s a great opportunity for an enterprising executive to get their name engraved on the door of a large office.
Below, CBS Sports takes a deeper dive into the Tigers’ organization (and the headaches that lie ahead) by analyzing Detroit’s major league roster, farm system, and budget, and addressing three key questions about the situation. I was.
big league prospects
Not a pretty situation. The Tigers have shown little ability to develop hitters or help starting pitchers come off plate. That means he has 14 players with at least 100 plate appearances. Only one of them (Harold Castro) has his OPS+ above his 100. They also had 11 pitchers start at least five times, and none of them had as many strikeouts per inning average (although Tarik Skubal came close to his 8.9).
These Tigers have been so hampered by poor performance and injuries that it’s hard to find an exception.Skubal, Mize and rookie starter Beau Brieske are shelved due to sore arms. . Torkelson and his fellow frontrunner Riley Greene were in contention. Multi-year veterans like Rodriguez, Báez and Austin Meadows (acquired this spring in exchange for Isaac Paredes) have failed to hit the benchmark. and so on. Rodriguez, Báez, and Meadows have a good track record to hope for some positive regression going forward. At least, that’s an optimistic conclusion.
The Tigers’ youngsters don’t get the benefit of the past, but they carry hope for the future. If they’re good, Detroit is on the road to becoming a competitive team here. If not, there aren’t enough reinforcements coming to make up for it. So it’s concerning that Torkelson was one of the worst-performing players in the majors before relegation. 664 in 93 at-bats, and his batting average hasn’t been great since turning to the minors. Right first baseman’s offensive standards are so high that he has to hit really, really forward to stand out from the crowd.
On the flip side, Green’s top line stats may not be great, but his base metrics suggest he’ll be fine because he hits the ball hard and cares about the zone. Scobal is the breakout star of the pitching staff. Mize said he had a great season in 2021, but his injury history should raise concerns about his long-term viability as a starter.Brieske and former frontrunner Matt Manning performed as a decent starter overall. Your mileage may vary depending on how likely you are to maintain it. In other words, there are some interesting young players here, but little certainty.
The friendliest way to assess the rest of the Tigers roster is that if the incoming GM wants to win quickly, he will likely need to add at least three or four new starters to the lineup by next Opening Day. is to write It ignores that the pitching staff also needs attention. Again, not the best situation on paper.
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Agricultural system outlook
Given that the Tigers haven’t made the playoffs since 2014, it’s reasonable to expect the Tigers’ farm system to be teeming with good talent as a product of the top picks in the draft each summer. it’s not. The Tigers have graduated several notable players in recent years, including Torkelson, Mize, Skubal and Green, and these departures have changed the scale. What was once a top-heavy system is now a sub-par system without a solid Top 50 prospect.
The Tigers didn’t help themselves in the summer of 2021 when they used the No. 3 pick to prepare for right-handed Jackson Jove. History suggests that drafting a high school right-hander with a top 10 pick is problematic. Despite this, the Tigers felt he was a good bet. Jobe was supposed to combine top notch with stunning sophistication, but his early returns were dismal. He’s still young, so you can’t fire him or deny him the possibility of having a solid career. Still, it’s reasonable to suggest that the Tigers must already be regretting the loss of Boston Reds his Sox shortstop Marcelo his Mayer.
Comparatively, the Tigers played it safe for the top picks this summer, picking two college infielders with just a Top 100 selection. You may have to slide down further. Jung can really hit and he should move quickly, even if scouts question how much of his plus power will play out in-game. and his boosters within the industry believe his best years are still ahead. It’s up to the Tigers development staff to prove them right.
The Tigers have several other names worth remembering. Infielder Colt Keith has missed the season with an arm injury, but was hitting average and powering in the High A’s despite being several years younger than the average tournament. Catcher Dillon Dingler is an excellent athlete with above average power. His strikeout tendencies limit his ceiling. The Tigers spent about $3 million each to acquire shortstop Cristian Santana and outfielder Roberto Campos. Both are years away, but Santana seems more promising at this point.
budget outlook
The Tigers’ Opening Day salary of $135 million was the highest since 2017. That figure was bolstered by the veteran trio of Miguel Cabrera, Rodriguez and Baez, who were set to make a combined $66 million this season. (Rodriguez remained on the restricted list for personal reasons, which changed the calculation.)
Unless Chris Illich opens his wallet, these three will continue to eat up Detroit’s budget for the foreseeable future, as his father Mike repeated when the Tigers were at the top of the championship. Cabrera, who has confirmed he will return for the final guarantee season of 2018, plans to bank $32 million next year. If the Tigers then have to buy out his options, he will be obliged to pay his $8 million over his next two seasons. (If he retires, they’ll be free from buyouts.) Meanwhile, Rodriguez and Baez will collectively take home more than $35 million through the 2026 season.
It’s worth noting that the Tigers have earned over $150 million in labor costs over the past decade, and should be able to scale up even more if they so desire. In other words, don’t blame the players. If they break and cry, blame the owner.
3 big questions
1. Rebuild or build on top?
The first question the next GM has to answer is whether there’s enough potential here to move forward, or whether the best route forward is to embark on another rebuild. If it’s the latter, the Tigers could move left-handed Tariq Sukbal this winter. On deadline he contacted Skubal, the team felt the Tigers had too many questions. This was a common complaint during Avila’s tenure. The development that saw Scobal sit out this season with an arm injury is a reminder of how the situation with Michael Fulmer and Matt Boyd played out, with injuries ultimately robbing them of their trading value and The Tigers snatched a package of hearty prospects.
2. How much input does Hinch have?
In the industry, Hinch is considered more influential than a typical field manager in that he oversaw the organization’s improved analytics infrastructure. The next GM won’t appreciate Hinch’s excesses and could spark a potential power struggle with a manager who 1) doesn’t employ him and 2) has a contract through the 2025 season. I doubt Hinch is going anywhere anytime soon, and that could affect who’s really interested in the job.
3. Does Ilitch spend money?
As mentioned in the budget section, the Tigers have no excuse to keep salaries below $150 million based on past spending. But that doesn’t mean his junior Ilic sees things the same way his father did. Ilitch’s level of financial comfort will go a long way in determining what path the Tigers take in the near future.
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